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Forum urges flu pandemic preparations |
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Tuesday, 24 January 2006 |
If the bird flu evolves into a global pandemic, only a fraction of Kentuckys 4 million residents would get vaccinated, top federal health officials said yesterday.
A flu pandemic could infect millions nationwide, and hundreds of thousands in Kentucky, state and federal officials said during a forum held to encourage the state to focus on preparations.
State officials predict between 3,000 and 7,000 Kentuckians likely would die, as compared to 834 who succumbed to the flu in 2001.
Dr. William Hacker, commissioner of the state department for public health, said Kentucky is working on ways to prepare for the possibility of a global outbreak.
"The message here is: Dont panic, but pay attention," Hacker said in an interview. "We dont want to hype the threat or generate undue worry. But the window we are struggling with is the next three to five years, when there is a possibility of a pandemic occurring before we have reached our full capacity to respond."
Congress has approved $3.8 billion to begin preparing the country for an outbreak, but officials warned it will be at least three to five years before the United States can produce enough vaccines to respond to a nationwide outbreak.
If a pandemic occurs before then, nearly all of America could be vulnerable to the virus, said Alex Azar, deputy secretary of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services.
Some anti-viral pills could help minimize the effects of the sickness, but Azar said the nations stockpile is far too small to be effective during a pandemic. By the end of this month, there will enough pills to treat only about 6 million people, and as many as 30 percent to 40 percent of the population could get sick, he said.
This is not media hype
In recent months, scientists and government officials have become increasingly concerned about a strain of the bird flu that has been spreading to humans in parts of Asia and Turkey. About 80 people have gotten sick, and about half have died, Azar said.
The Asian strain of the flu is very similar to the virus that sparked the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic, said Dr. Julie Gerberding, director of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Gerberding, who was at the Frankfort forum yesterday, said 500,000 Americans died in 1918-1919.
She said the prospect of the bird flu spreading between humans is a real concern.
"This is not media hype," Gerberding said. "This is a real issue for us."
Hacker said scientists predict that if the Asian bird flu reaches pandemic status is could be about as deadly as the 1918 outbreak.
In addition, more than 20,000 Kentuckians could require hospitalization, overburdening the states medical facilities.
Everyone must prepare
Azar said its important for everyone -- including doctors, families, governments, and prison wardens -- to be aware of a possible pandemic.
"If you run a business, and you have 100 employees, start thinking about what you would do if 30 to 40 of them are out sick all at once," he said. "Because that is what we are talking about here."
Azar said Kentucky is receiving $1.5 million to jump-start preparations, and it could get twice that much later this year. Its part of more than $7 billion he said President Bush is requesting over the next three years to raise the nations readiness for a global pandemic.
Most of that money will be spent to increase the stockpile of anti-viral drugs, to help states buy their own reserves of the pills, and to give incentives to vaccine manufacturers to expand their production capacity. But about $350 million also will be funneled to states directly.
Old-fashioned methods
Gov. Ernie Fletcher, who met with Azar yesterday before speaking at the forum, said its too soon to know how Kentuckys share of that money will be spent, but emergency officials and public-health experts would be consulted.
But Hacker cautioned against an over-reliance on the anti-viral drugs or a vaccine, which he said likely would not be distributed fast enough to prevent large numbers of Kentuckians from getting ill during a pandemic.
"My message is dont rely on medical science to take care of you for this particular problem," he said. "We need to respect the old, traditional methods of public health: Washing your hands, coughing into your sleeve, and staying home when you are sick."
Officials said yesterday that those steps could help limit the spread of the disease even if a vaccine is not available -- perhaps slowing the disease enough to give health workers and others time to distribute anti-viral medicines or better prepare isolation wards at hospitals, for example. |
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